Open Access Scientometrics Stevan Harnad, University of Southampton, UK April 4th, 2005 | 6-7p | LI 001 One of the ways to measure and predict research influence, direction and impact is through citation analysis. Articles cite one another, and citations can be counted, and lineages traced. Co-citation analysis is another way of analyzing structure and influence: Who is cited together with whom? Hub/authority analysis allows articles to be weighted by whether they are reviews citing many related articles, or they are influential works cited by many articles. The citation equivalent of Google's PageRank allows citations to be weighted, recursively, by how cited the citing work is. A citation has a higher weight if the citing article is itself a highly cited article. A new web-based measure is article downloads; these turn out to be correlated with and hence predictive of citations 18 months later, and even longer if the article is a pre-publication preprint. The latency from download time to citation time has also been steadily shrinking as more preprints and postprints are made openly accessible (OA) online. OA articles have significantly, sometimes dramatically higher citation impact than non-OA articles. Making more of the literature OA will not only make it more accessible and enhance its usage and impact, but it will make powerful new forms of scientometric analysis for monitoring and measuring research possible. REFERENCES & LINKS: http://opcit.eprints.org/oacitation-biblio.html http://citebase.eprints.org/ http://citebase.eprints.org/analysis/correlation.php http://citebase.eprints.org/isi_study/ http://www.crsc.uqam.ca/lab/chawki/ch.htm Brody, T. and Harnad, S. (2005) Earlier Web Usage Statistics as Predictors of Later Citation Impact. Technical Report, ECS, University of Southampton. http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10647/ Brody, T. and Harnad, S. (2004) Comparing the Impact of Open Access (OA) vs. Non-OA Articles in the Same Journals. D-Lib Magazine 10(6). http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10207/ Harnad, S., Brody, T., Vallieres, F., Carr, L., Hitchcock, S., Yves, G., Charles, O., Stamerjohanns, H. and Hilf, E. (2004) The Access/Impact Problem and the Green and Gold Roads to Open Access. Serials review 30(4). http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10209/   Open Access Scientometrics Stevan Harnad, University of Southampton, UK April 4 th , 2005 | 6-7p   | LI 001 One of the ways to measure and predict research influence, direction and impact is through citation analysis. Articles cite one another, and citations can be counted, and lineages traced. Co-citation analysis is another way of analyzing structure and influence: Who is cited together with whom? Hub/authority analysis allows articles to be weighted by whether they are reviews citing many related articles, or they are influential works cited by many articles. The citation equivalent of Google's PageRank allows citations to be weighted, recursively, by how cited the citing work is. A citation has a higher weight if the citing article is itself a highly cited article. A new web-based measure is article downloads; these turn out to be correlated with and hence predictive of citations 18 months later, and even longer if the article is a pre-publication preprint. The latency from download time to citation time has also been steadily shrinking as more preprints and postprints are made openly accessible (OA) online. OA articles have significantly, sometimes dramatically higher citation impact than non-OA articles. Making more of the literature OA will not only make it more accessible and enhance its usage and impact, but it will make powerful new forms of scientometric analysis for monitoring and measuring research possible.   REFERENCES & LINKS:         http://opcit.eprints.org/oacitation-biblio.html http://opcit.eprints.org/oacitation-biblio.html         http://citebase.eprints.org/ http://citebase.eprints.org/         http://citebase.eprints.org/analysis/correlation.php http://citebase.eprints.org/analysis/correlation.php         http://citebase.eprints.org/isi_study/ http://citebase.eprints.org/isi_study/         http://www.crsc.uqam.ca/lab/chawki/ch.htm http://www.crsc.uqam.ca/lab/chawki/ch.htm   Brody, T. and Harnad, S. (2005) Earlier Web Usage Statistics as Predictors of Later Citation Impact. Technical Report, ECS, University of Southampton. http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10647/ http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10647/         Brody, T. and Harnad, S. (2004) Comparing the Impact of Open Access (OA) vs. Non-OA Articles in the Same Journals. D-Lib Magazine 10(6). http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10207/ http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10207/   Harnad, S., Brody, T., Vallieres, F., Carr, L., Hitchcock, S., Yves, G., Charles, O., Stamerjohanns, H. and Hilf, E. (2004) The Access/Impact Problem and the Green and Gold Roads to Open        Access. Serials review 30(4). http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10209/ http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/10209/