Date: Tue, 9 Mar 2004 05:24:39 +0000 (GMT) From: "[iso-8859-1] MALLIKARJUNA, C" <hbmallikarjuna@yahoo.co.in> Phil Davis <pmd8@cornell.edu> wrote:From: Phil Davis To: liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu Subject: Methodology for estimating cost per article at an institution Date: Mon, 8 Mar 2004 21:24:13 EST Scott Plutchak, Ann Okerson and others have started some constructive dialog by comparing subscription vs. producer (author) payments at their own institutions. So librarians can begin to calculate these figures for their own institution, I have provided a methodology for estimating these figures below. The two most challenging tasks are 1) estimating the total article output of an institution in the absence of a single comprehensive index, and 2) correcting for articles that have authors from multiple institutions. Below is an example methodology. While I can imagine before even posting this, receiving a number of responses trying to pick holes in the weakness of the methodology, I ask those individuals in response to propose a correction or simpler model (Occam's Razor). ESTIMATING THE ARTICLE COVERAGE OF ISI Number of titles indexed by ISI (SCI, SSCI, AHCI) = 8,769 Estimate of the number of scholarly journals = 20,000 This means that ISI is only indexing 44% of journals; however, not all journals publish the same number of articles per year and ISI attempts to index the most prolific core journals. If we assume a logarithmic (skewed) distribution, these 44% of indexed journals represent nearly 92% of the number of articles published (i.e. log 8,769 / log 20,000). CORRECTING FOR MULTIPLE-AUTHOR ARTICLES Number of Cornell author "hits" in ISI for 2003 = 5,465 However, many of these articles have multiple authors from multiple institutions. If we assume that the first author would pay all publishing charges (this is the BMC model, and it seems more reasonable than splitting $525 among 100 authors of a high-energy physics article), then how many of the above "hits" represents first author-articles? ISI displays only the first 500 records and makes it difficult to get an absolute count. We need to resort to sampling. I took a distributed sample of 100 articles (the first and last article on each page of results), and found that 61 (of the 100) included a Cornellian as a first author. Therefore the % first author hits = 61% (do this calculation for your own institution). The estimate of article output by first authors at Cornell = 5,465 x 0.61 = 3,636 ESTIMATING THE COST PER ARTICLE IF AN INSTITUTION MOVED TO AN OPEN ACCESS MODEL Scenario 1. The entire industry swaps from a subscription model to an open-access model overnight, and all authors publish in open-access journals. The breakeven cost/article = total article output of an institution / total amount spent on purchasing journals. For Cornell, this number is about $1,100/article Scenario 2. The entire industry except Elsevier moves from a subscription to OA model. The library still purchases Elsevier journals and authors still publish in them. Calculate the number of articles published in Elsevier journals in 2003 by searching for your institution in Science Direct advanced journal search for affiliation. Correct for multiple authors. Remove money spent on Elsevier journals and number of articles published in Elsevier journals and recalculate the cost/article. For Cornell, this number is under $800/article. In other words, OA has to cost less than $800/article for the model to start saving money. Scenario 3. Same is 2 but assume all large publishers will not participate (Kluwer, Wiley, Springer). For Cornell, the cost/article is less than $400/article. The reason that the cost per article would need to be much lower in Scenario 1 and 2 is because the large commercial publishers take up a disproportionate amount of a libraries funds compared to the number of articles published in these journals. For example, the Elsevier ratio is 43% / 16%. Philip Davis, Life Sciences Bibliographer Mann Library, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (607) 255-7192 ; (607) 255-0318 fax pmd8@cornell.edu http://people.cornell.edu/pages/pmd8/ C.MALLIKARJUNA, ISEC LIBRARY, INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGE NAGARABHAVI BANGALORE-560 079. hbmallikarjuna@yahoo.co.in Office:080+3215468 EXT-301 Mobile:080+36757228 Yahoo! India Insurance Special: Be informed on the best policies, services, tools and more. --0-1197097960-1078809879=:60659 Content-Type: text/html; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit <DIV><BR><BR><B><I>Phil Davis <pmd8@cornell.edu></I></B> wrote: <BLOCKQUOTE class=replbq style="BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">From: Phil Davis <PMD8@CORNELL.EDU><BR>To: liblicense-l@lists.yale.edu<BR>Subject: Methodology for estimating cost per article at an institution<BR>Date: Mon, 8 Mar 2004 21:24:13 EST<BR><BR>Scott Plutchak, Ann Okerson and others have started some constructive<BR>dialog by comparing subscription vs. producer (author) payments at their<BR>own institutions. So librarians can begin to calculate these figures for<BR>their own institution, I have provided a methodology for estimating these<BR>figures below. The two most challenging tasks are 1) estimating the total<BR>article output of an institution in the absence of a single comprehensive<BR>index, and 2) correcting for articles that have authors from multiple<BR>institutions. Below is an example methodology. While I can imagine<BR>before even posting this, receiving a number of responses trying to pick<BR>holes in the weakness o! f the methodology, I ask those individuals in<BR>response to propose a correction or simpler model (Occam's Razor).<BR><BR><BR>ESTIMATING THE ARTICLE COVERAGE OF ISI<BR><BR>Number of titles indexed by ISI (SCI, SSCI, AHCI) = 8,769<BR>Estimate of the number of scholarly journals = 20,000<BR><BR>This means that ISI is only indexing 44% of journals; however, not all<BR>journals publish the same number of articles per year and ISI attempts to<BR>index the most prolific core journals. If we assume a logarithmic<BR>(skewed) distribution, these 44% of indexed journals represent nearly 92%<BR>of the number of articles published (i.e. log 8,769 / log 20,000).<BR><BR><BR>CORRECTING FOR MULTIPLE-AUTHOR ARTICLES<BR><BR>Number of Cornell author "hits" in ISI for 2003 = 5,465<BR><BR>However, many of these articles have multiple authors from multiple<BR>institutions. If we assume that the first author would pay all publishing<BR>charges (this is the BMC model, and it seems more reasonable than<BR>splitting $525 among 100 authors of a high-energy physics article), then<BR>how many of the above "hits" represents first author-articles?<BR><BR>ISI displays only the first 500 records and makes it difficult to get an<BR>absolute count. We need to resort to sampling. I took a distributed<BR>sample of 100 articles (the first and last article on each page of<BR>results), and found that 61 (of the 100) included a Cornellian as a first<BR>author. Therefore the % first author hits = 61% (do this calculation for<BR>your own institution).<BR><BR>The estimate of article output by first authors at Cornell = 5,465 x 0.61<BR>= 3,636<BR><BR><BR>ESTIMATING THE COST PER ARTICLE IF AN INSTITUTION MOVED TO AN OPEN ACCESS<BR>MODEL<BR><BR>Scenario 1. The entire industry swaps from a subscription model to an<BR>open-access model overnight, and all authors publish in open-access<BR>journals. The breakeven cost/article = total article output of an<BR>institution / total amount spent on purchasing journals. For Cornell,<BR>this number is about $1,100/article<BR><BR>Scenario 2. The entire industry except Elsevier moves from a subscription<BR>to OA model. The library still purchases Elsevier journals and authors<BR>still publish in them. Calculate the number of articles published in<BR>Elsevier journals in 2003 by searching for your institution in Science<BR>Direct advanced journal search for affiliation. Correct for multiple<BR>authors. Remove money spent on Elsevier journals and number of articles<BR>published in Elsevier journals and recalculate the cost/article. For<BR>Cornell, this number is under $800/article. In other words, OA has to<BR>cost less than $800/article for the model to start saving money.<BR><BR>Scenario 3. Same is 2 but assume all large publishers will not<BR>participate (Kluwer, Wiley, Springer). For Cornell, the cost/article is<BR>less than $400/article. The reason that the cost per article would need<BR>to be much lower in Scenario 1 ! and 2 is because the large commercial<BR>publishers take up a disproportionate amount of a libraries funds compared<BR>to the number of articles published in these journals. For example, the<BR>Elsevier ratio is 43% / 16%.<BR><BR>Philip Davis, Life Sciences Bibliographer<BR>Mann Library, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853<BR>(607) 255-7192 ; (607) 255-0318 fax<BR>pmd8@cornell.edu<BR>http://people.cornell.edu/pages/pmd8/<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV><BR><BR><DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>C.MALLIKARJUNA,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>ISEC LIBRARY,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGE</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>NAGARABHAVI</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>BANGALORE-560 079.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff><A href="mailto:hbmallikarjuna@yahoo.co.in">hbmallikarjuna@yahoo.co.in</A></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>Office:080+3215468 EXT-301 </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff>Mobile:080+36757228</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT color=#0000ff></FONT> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><p><font face=arial size=-1> <a href="http://in.rd.yahoo.com/specials/mailtag/*http://in.insurance.yahoo.com/licsp..." target="_blank"><b>Yahoo! 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